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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 12.07 - 19.07: ranging in the middle of reversal waiting for direction

July 12, 2015, 9:59 pm
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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.13 06:58

EUR/USD: Make Or Break; Levels & Targets - Citi (based on efxnews article)


"The failure to set a new high on 18 June (1.1439 versus 1.1468 high on 15 May) raised the first question mark. Now, a close below 1.0819, if seen, would create a lower low and firmly suggest that the downtrend has resumed," Citi adds.

In that eventuality, Citi thinks that the present pattern could then be identified as either:

"1- A head and shoulders formation with a neckline at 1.1124 and a downside target of at least 1.0370 (new trend lows).

2- An effective double top with a neckline at 1.0819 and a minimum target of 1.0185-1.0200," Citi clarifies.

"While longer term (possibly summer 2016) we retain a target of .8800-.9000 we would envisage seeing the target rangers above in the weeks ahead if this break of 1.0819 takes place," Citi projects.


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Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

July 12, 2015, 10:00 pm
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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.13 06:58

EUR/USD: Make Or Break; Levels & Targets - Citi (based on efxnews article)


"The failure to set a new high on 18 June (1.1439 versus 1.1468 high on 15 May) raised the first question mark. Now, a close below 1.0819, if seen, would create a lower low and firmly suggest that the downtrend has resumed," Citi adds.

In that eventuality, Citi thinks that the present pattern could then be identified as either:

"1- A head and shoulders formation with a neckline at 1.1124 and a downside target of at least 1.0370 (new trend lows).

2- An effective double top with a neckline at 1.0819 and a minimum target of 1.0185-1.0200," Citi clarifies.

"While longer term (possibly summer 2016) we retain a target of .8800-.9000 we would envisage seeing the target rangers above in the weeks ahead if this break of 1.0819 takes place," Citi projects.


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BEST_TIME_FOR_TRADING_FOREX

July 12, 2015, 10:01 pm
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First, please do not use all caps.  In text conversations, it is considered yelling, and in normal conversation, there is no need to yell all the time.


As far as the times, when the markets are trading heavy.  According to some info I was reading, the London Markets are some of the higher markets as far as trading volume go.  There is even some time during the day that they are both open, and then is even better, apparently.  If the market is moving up and down, there is a chance to make money.  Sideways markets, not so much because there is usually not a lot of activity in price changes to make money on trades, as you either have to sell at a high price and buy at a lower one, or buy at a low price and sell at a higher.  If the prices are all about the same, not much chance for that.

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predict and trade by forces system

July 12, 2015, 10:04 pm
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My for loop is not incrementing

July 12, 2015, 10:18 pm
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Discussion of article "How to Subscribe to Trading Signals"

July 12, 2015, 10:41 pm
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Karputov Vladimir:
In this case, blame your broker. Require the broker to enable the tab "Signals".
Ok, thank you.
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Traders Joking

July 12, 2015, 11:52 pm
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                                                          This is one photo

 

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mql5

July 13, 2015, 10:45 pm
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ok, how about expert advisor, can the expert advisor work when our metatrader 4/5 isn't online? #sorry i am tenderfoot...
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Traders Joking

July 13, 2015, 10:53 pm
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                                  Incredible views from the cafe, Hokkaido, Japan

 

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Press review

July 13, 2015, 11:24 pm
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Royal Bank of Scotland - 'EUR/USD goes lower multi-month but in a choppy range over the next few weeks' (based on efxnews article)

RBS is thinking that EURUSD will be in more ranging condition for the next few weeks:

  • "The last minute agreement with Greece ought, in theory, play EUR/USD negative by allowing negative front-end rate spreads to be a bigger FX driver again. Also EUR negative, we believe, is the renewed fall in oil. For two to three months, markets have romanced the Euro area ‘reflation’ trade."
  • "Conclusion: EUR/USD goes lower multi-month but in a choppy range over the next few weeks," RBS concludes.

If we look at Ichimoku chart D1 timeframe so we can see the following:

  • the price is located inside Ichimoku cloud for ranging market condition;
  • Sinkou Span A line (which is the border between primary bullish and the primary bearish on the chart) is located near and above the price and it means the primary bearish market condition;
  • AbsoluteStrength indicator in separate window is rising by bearish value (tomato colored line) and rising by bullish value (skyblue colored line) on the same time which means for ranging market condition to be continuing during the next few weeks.
  • nearest support level is located in bearish arear of the chart: 1.0915 ;
  • nearest resistance level is located in bullish area of the chart: 1.1215.


Thus, I can confirm: we will see the choppy/ranging market condition within the primary bearish during the next few weeks.
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What's your suggest EA for newbie ?

July 14, 2015, 12:07 am
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copy trades working on my demo and not working on my real account

July 14, 2015, 12:09 am
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Mirko Cerulli:

Thank you, Stuart.

I will surely do it.

Very welcome. Thanks mate
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Something Interesting to Read July 2015

July 14, 2015, 12:25 am
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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Something Interesting to Read February 2014

Sergey Golubev, 2014.02.14 14:53

Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Are Beating Wall Street at Its Own Game

by Kathy Lien




Trading is a battle between you and the market. And while you might not be a financial professional, that doesn't mean you can't win this battle.

Through interviews with twelve ordinary individuals who have worked hard to transform themselves into extraordinary traders, Millionaire Traders reveals how you can beat Wall Street at its own game.Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, this book introduces you to a dozen successful traders-some who focus on equities, others who deal in futures or foreign exchange-and examines the paths they've taken to capture considerable profits.
With this book as your guide, you'll quickly become familiar with a variety of strategies that can be used to make money in today's financial markets. Those that will help you achieve this goal include:

  • Tyrone Ball: trades Nasdaq stocks almost exclusively, and his ability to change with the times has enabled him to prosper during some of the most treacherous market environments in recent history.
  • AShkan Bolour: one of the earliest entrants into the retail forex market, he trades in the direction of the major trend, rather than trying to find reversals.
  • Frank Law: a technician at heart, identifies a trading zone, commits to it, and scales down as long as the zone holds.
  • Paul Willette: has mastered a method that allows him to harvest some profits right away, while ensuring that he can still benefit from an occasional extension run in his favor.

===============

Other books by Kathy Lien :

===============

Kathy Lien :



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Indicators: FX Multi-Meter II

July 14, 2015, 12:35 am
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Oh and I have also compiled it in meta editor prior
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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 12.07 - 19.07: ranging in the middle of reversal waiting for direction

July 14, 2015, 10:42 pm
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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.15 07:40

Fundamental Forecast - 'What Will Draghi Say?' - Citibank (based on efxnews article)

Citibank provided some forecasts concerning fundamental news events on Thursday related to ECB meeting and potential EUR reaction. Citi described it on 4 points to be mention:

  1. "European data has improved, but undeniably the risks to Europe have increased".
    Citi analytics see a little option for Draghi for the situation improvement to reduce the risk.
  2. "Growth has trudged along in Europe since the last ECB meeting. Broadly, there has been better data in France, Spain and Italy, with some weakening in Germany...Draghi is likely to remain cautious and given the decline in oil, there is some potential for a mildly more dovish message on inflation," Citi adds.
  3. "We bias a weaker EUR through the press conference."
  4. "Thursday’s ECB is going to be dependent to a large extent on the Greek parliamentary vote and Eurogroup bridge financing decisions."
Citi told that the market reaction will trump the expectation so the direction for EUR/USD will remain the same one.

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Something Interesting in Financial Video July 2015

July 14, 2015, 11:44 pm
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How To Trade News Events: Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price that consumers pay for those goods. Released at 8:30 am eastern standard on approximately the 15th of each month, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the changes in prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services.

The question that naturally arises when hearing this is wouldn’t those two numbers be the same or at least move in tandem with one another? The answer to that question is not necessarily, for the following reasons:

  • The PPI is designed to measure the entire marketed output of US producers which includes goods and services purchased by other producers. (The CPI includes only goods purchased by consumers)
  • Imports are excluded from PPI but included in CPI
  • Taxes paid as part of the purchasing price by the consumer are not included in PPI but are included in CPI.

The important thing to understand here is that while changes in PPI are normally looked at as having predictive power as to changes in the CPI, a rise or fall in the PPI does not necessarily mean the same rise or fall in the CPI. As this is the case, and as the CPI is the end price paid by the consumer, this number best represents the level of inflation in the US economy.

In addition to showing fluctuations in price for different areas of the country, the CPI also shows the fluctuation in price for different groups of products such as housing, transportation, medical care etc. This allows traders to see not only the price fluctuations of the overall economy but also for different areas of the economy.

There are two main CPI numbers reported which are the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) and the CPI for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which basically give two separate numbers for the price increases experienced by working people and the price increases experienced by all consumers.

As with the PPI the Consumer Price Index is also presented without volatile food and energy included. This “Core CPI” number or CPI-U minus food and energy is the most widely followed number.


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Direction Movement Index with MA Trading System

July 14, 2015, 11:49 pm
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Time frame 15 min

Currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF.

 

Forex Indicators:

Directional Movement Index (D+ D-, 14 periods),

5 Weight moving Average (close),

11 Simple moving Average (close),

Parabolic Sar (0.1 0.01)

 

 


Rules for Direction Movement Index with MA Trading System

 

Long Entry

5 WMA> 11 MA,

Sar below the candles,

ADX DI+ positive > (greater than) DI- negative (Yellow above RED).

 

Short Entry

5 WMA< 11 MA,

Sar above the candles,

ADX DI- negative > (greater than) DI+ positive (Red above Yellow).

 

Re enter if SAR signalled again in the older direction of the trend.

The crossover of the moving average determines the trend.

 

Exits and Stop
Parabolic SAR signal in opposite direction,

Profits are discretion for you (examples for profit: Pivot points levels, or predetermined profit target).

Initial stop loss at the previous swing

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MACD Forex Trading System

July 14, 2015, 11:53 pm
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Time frame: any.

Currency pairs: any

We only BUY when the MACD Bars are GREEN.

We only SELL when the MACD Bars are RED.

 

The best time to start looking for a signal is when the MACD has just crossed the ‘0’ line.

In other words…

It’s best to look for a SELL when the MACD Bars have just gone from green to red.

It’s best to look for a BUY when the MACD Bars have just gone from red to green.

See examples ( below).

Now, remember what I said before,  rules are higher probability (but don’t occur so often).

Rules happen more often but are not as effective (at least until you get some

experience with the system).

So, for this part of the MACD rule, it doesn’t matter if the MACD has just crossed the ‘0’ line; as long as the bars are red for a short (or green for a long) we can be prepared to take a trade.

On the charts there is a 50-EMA channel; this channel is made from the 50-EMA of the HIGHS and the 50-EMA channel of the LOWs.

 

We only look to BUY when the 15-EMA is ABOVE the 50-EMA Channel.

We only look to SELL when the 15-EMA is BELOW the 50-EMA Channel.

 

Many times there are good signals when the 15-EMA is just inside the 50-EMA Channel.

Once you have some experience, you will start to recognise when it’s okay to take trades when the 15-EMA is inside the 50-EMA Channel.

Where to place your stoploss will be very obvious when you enter a trade.

You basically place it behind the most recent low (or high) made before the arrow occurred.

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In EA testing, the data can not be written to a CSV file?

July 15, 2015, 12:01 am
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tiankong:
In EA testing, the data can not be written to a CSV file?
Provide your logs and source code please. Describe step by step your actions.
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How to avoid zero divide error in runtime ?

July 15, 2015, 12:18 am
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Marco vd Heijden:
what's the file size after that?
1 MB
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